Macao Premium Biz Trend Elasticity in April

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Business trends in the Macau gaming sector in April ahead of the Labor Day break suggested Citigroup was "looking resilient" in a recent note.

"Given the timing of this year's Labor Day holiday, I wouldn't be surprised if Macau's gaming gross revenue (GGR) was generated by less premium mass players this month," analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheng wrote, following the agency's latest field survey of Macau's premium mass game tables.

The next major holiday in mainland China, Macau's main tourism supply market, is the Labor Day holiday, which runs from May 1 (Wednesday) to May 5 (Sunday).

Citigroup forecast Macau's GGR to reach 18.5 billion MOPs ($2.3 billion) in April, up 26% from the previous year, but down 5% from the MOP19.5 billion recorded in March.

According to Citigroup's April premium mass table survey, wages per player were down 5% year-on-year. Analysts said the April 2023 survey was "because it was conducted on the Friday before the Labor Day holiday" last year. The 2023 holiday season was from April 29 to May 3.

"More importantly, a 5 percent year-on-year drop is more than offset by a 60 percent year-on-year increase in the number of players," the agency said. Such a growth "was observed to have increased 53 percent year-on-year in total wages," the analysts added.

Citigroup said total wages observed in its April survey amounted to HK$11.1 million ($1.4 million), compared with about HK$7.2 million in April 2023. The number of premium mass players "has reached 568," it added.

"Player-specific wages edged down 5% to HK$19,467 in April 2024, but that was likely due to a 60% year-over-year increase in player numbers, meaning there were relatively more casual premium players compared to April 2023," Choi and Cheung said.

They added, "The Labor Day holiday is just around the corner, and some players will probably save their Macau visas until then."

Citigroup's April survey found 18 "whales" - players with bets of more than HK$100,000 per person. "We found whales in five of the six casino operators except SJM [Holdings] during the survey," Citigroup said.

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